ZeroCovid: The Plan

ZeroCovid is an exit strategy.

ZeroCovid—otherwise known as the Green Zone Exit Strategy—is unlike other strategies we’ve seen deployed over the past year which are passive, reactive, and ineffective. Additionally, these other strategies have cost us hundreds of thousands of lives and have dealt a massive blow to our economy. 

ZeroCovid aims to move toward a bright and better future by eliminating the virus. We need to do this as quickly as possible to save lives and livelihoods. This plan minimizes the risks from new virus variants that are spreading rapidly.

ZeroCovid should be adapted based on the conditions, strengths, and capabilities of each community. Using all available resources to eliminate the virus has been shown to work in Australia, China, New Zealand, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, and Atlantic Canada.

ZeroCovid is a real-world strategy that requires hard work, persistence, and collaboration. This strategy is worth implementing because the alternative is much worse. Making every effort to reach ZeroCovid reduces the massive health and economic costs. 

As we move toward #ZeroCovid, here are 4 steps that should be taken immediately:

1) Use the strongest possible action to prevent transmission: We must take a 5-week pause on any unnecessary activities that bring people in contact with each other. Only essential services should be allowed to continue operating using maximal transmission prevention protocols (delivery, curbside pickup, wearing masks, social distancing, air purification, etc.).

Prevent importing cases into nations, states, communities, and neighborhoods through strict travel restrictions, including mandatory 14-day quarantines for visitors in designated spaces away from other people. The smaller the local area protected by travel restrictions, the faster the process of getting to zero cases. Then, use a Green Zone Exit Strategy to open up protected areas slowly and progressively over a few weeks.

2) Rapidly test and isolate positive cases: We must rapidly identify cases, isolate them, and provide care for them in designated facilities to protect family, friends, and neighbors. This prevents household transmission, while providing care for individuals who are sick with testing, contact tracing, and coordination by public health and medical organizations. Testing should include symptom-based mass-testing and other methods such as sewage testing.

3) Ensure a livelihood for all: We must protect the livelihood of everyone in need of financial support. Vulnerable individuals should receive help—financial resources, employment assurance, mental health care, and other needs—from the community and the government. Regular check-ins with individuals and families by the community make rapid case identification and other forms of support possible.

4) Rapid Vaccination: We must rapidly vaccinate high-risk individuals—with a focus on essential workers. We’ll accomplish this by focusing on disease severity (age and prior conditions) and essential employment needs (healthcare workers and other essential workers). Mass vaccination may help with transmission prevention and should be used as one of—but not the only—tool to do so.

If we take these steps, we can eliminate the virus much sooner than currently projected. If we deploy the ZeroCovid strategy well, we have an opportunity to control the virus, eliminate it locally, progressively eliminate it in larger areas, and move toward a bright and better future. Now is the time to take swift, strong, and coordinated action. ZeroCovid is within our reach.

Current State of the U.S.

Data source: John Hopkins University
Created by: Olha Buchel from the New England Complex Systems Institute and Joseph D. Ortiz from Kent State University